Philosophy
“The number one skill in investing is patience — extreme patience.”
— Mohnish Pabrai
“There are no prizes for frenetic activity. Rather, investing is mostly a matter of waiting for these moments when the odds of making money vastly outweigh the odds of losing it.”
— Charlie Munger
How this applies to gambling
Everything above was said about investing, but it maps onto betting almost word for word.
Most of the gambling you see online runs on a gut feeling or some very basic analysis. I only bet once in a while. Something stirs my interest, and then I do the research.
I have friends who’ve built incredible systems — market-making prediction markets, modeling out the WNBA. I’m in awe of them, and one of my superpowers is the ability to genuinely say good for you. All of that goes into my Too Hard bucket. Munger kept a Too Hard tray on his desk and put almost everything in it. He did fine.
What earns a bet
A bet gets made here only when I can explain, in one sentence, why the other side of the number is wrong — and the explanation has to be about the market’serror (recency bias, stale lines, anchoring), not about my own cleverness. If the edge isn’t legible, it isn’t an edge; it’s entertainment risk wearing an edge costume.
Every bet is written up and published when it’s placed, not after it settles. The losses stay on the log. That’s the whole point of the log.